The Drop List: August Edition

I’ve had several days of intense analytical introspection about important issues so I feel the need to take a break and do something fun.  Happily, the rumor that Rick Perry has stopped paying his campaign staff in every state has come to rescue me.  Seeing that schadenfreude-tastic news made me think about what order the Republican candidates will start dropping like flies and when.

So first of all, let’s remember all the candidates in their current polling order.  Since this is a fun list, I’m using a fun poll, ie the NBC/SurveyMonkey Poll.  You should be pretty dubious of internet polls because of the issue of opt-in as well as the fact that internet users skew young, white, and male.  Nevertheless, here we go.

  • Donald Trump (23%)
  • Ted Cruz (13%)
  • Ben Carson (11%)
  • Carly Fiorina (8%)
  • Marco Rubio (8%)
  • Jeb! Bush (7%)
  • Scott Walker (7%)
  • Mike Huckabee (5%)
  • Rand Paul (5%)
  • Rick Perry (2%)
  • John Kasich (2%)
  • Lindsay Graham (1%)
  • Bobby Jindal (1%)
  • Chris Christie (1%)
  • George Pataki (0%)
  • Rick Santorum (0%)

The idea that Ted Cruz is number two right now seems patently stupid to me, but whatever.  Let’s roll with it.

Here, therefore, is my list of the order in which Republicans will drop out of the Primary and who they’ll throw their SuperPac money behind (with creative story-telling)…

Rick Perry

So this is pretty obvious.  His campaign staff have all recently been changed to “volunteer status” (Shout out to Gabriel).  In other words, the campaign has stopped paying everyone because they’re almost broke.  At least his SuperPAC has $17 million.  That’ll be helpful next week when the indicted two-time Governor announces that he’s stepping out of the campaign in order to focus on his continuing ability to remain unincarcerated.

Throws His SuperPac Behind: Jeb! Bush

Lindsay Graham

Oh Lindsay.  He’s probably clutching his pearls constantly about these poll numbers.  He was so looking forward to his sister serving as First Lady without even a hint of irony.  Still, once Rick drops out Lindsay can at least leave knowing that he wasn’t the first to go.  If he doesn’t make it to the main stage in the next debate I think he’ll leave because he’s “needed in the Senate.”  You know, to make sure that we go to war with Iran.

Throws His SuperPAC Behind: Marco Rubio (Senators run tight, son!)

George Pataki

He’s going to slip out quietly after Lindsay, hoping that no one remembers he was there in the first place.  Wait…who were we talking about?

And the SuperPac Goes to… Oh come on, are you serious?  The SuperPAC that supports him has a name as awkward as his candidacy: We The People, Not Washington PAC …and they’ve raised $859,000.  How cute.

Bobby Jindal

As his favorables plummet further and further into the toilet in Louisiana and his Presidential polling numbers remain statistically zero, even Bobby Jindal’s monumental ego will give it up…especially considering his fundraising has been abysmal.  He won’t make it to January.  Will his exist be as awkward as his entrance?  Cross your fingers.  Maybe it’ll be another To Catch A Predator-esque hidden camera announcement.

SuperPAC funds?: What…you mean all twelve dollars?

Chris Christie

A part of me wonders where there will be a scandal big enough to actually put him under indictment?  Either that or he’ll stroke out yelling about how teachers are the worst people.  Stupid teachers…dedicating their lives to educating children.  Gross.

SuperPAC money: Secretly funnels it into legal funds for his many legal scandals.


Everyone else stays in at least until the after the September debate.  Here’s the weird thing, the next debate round is going – again – to have two debates: the top 10 and everyone left getting more than 1% of the polling.  At this point that’s basically no one.  Or rather, assuming everyone stays in until September 16, John Kasich will be debating himself on the second tier stage.  All I know is this, Donald Trump will continue to be the outlier to end all outliers and he will not flame out no matter how much you want him to.

And finally, these predictions are entirely for entertainment purposes…unless they bear out in which case yes, I am prescient.

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